Like the oldest son who becomes rebellious and disdains his parents advice, Greece continues to strive for its own economic independence. While still wanting to receive its allowance Greece has essentially let it be known that it will not bow to the wishes of the dominant partners involved.
And like most parents who love their children, the E.U. is not going to let go of its connection to Greece without a fight. They might say that they have no intention to giving in to the whims of its rebellious child, but at the same time they know at some point they must let them have their freedom even if it serves as a life lesson and nothing good come from it.
Meaning that the entire Greek saga that has been unfolding before our eyes the past five years, like watching a teenager who was troubled and has grown into a young adult that still shows little in the way of conforming to the norm, has room for much more drama.
The European Union can say all they want that they will not bend to Greece. But what is their choice really? If Greece were to default on its obligations and worse yet pull out of the EUR the shockwaves would be felt wide and far. Now if Greece were to make a deal and somehow – using Cyprus as a guide? – and pursue an agreement that Europe could quietly accept this would be the best for all parties. Because as Greece is sure to point out to Germany, the E.U. and the ECB, something paid is better than nothing paid. Yes, someone will be left holding a bag of cash that does not match their expectations, but some cash is better than none.
The EUR continues to trade near lows and we see no reason for the EUR to suddenly emerge a stronger currency in the near term. Economic conditions in the continent are still largely deflationary in a vast region. And the fear in the short-term of the implications of Greece leaving the EUR have investors worried. Though it should be said that many feel that the EUR would recover in time if Greece were to leave the EUR and would actually be stronger in the long-term from such a twist of events.
In other markets, Crude Oil is holding within a fairly tight range. Brent and WTI show little signs of springing to life via sudden demand, but they may not have much more room to go lower, meaning that Crude Oil is a legitimate speculative play for day traders looking to take advantage of short-term trends.