A game of ‘who do you trust’ is once again emerging in the world of investment. From data to geo-politics investors need to look at the trading environment and decide if they believe what they are reading and being told. While the U.S. Advance GDP was an impressive 4.0% on Wednesday, the previous month’s number was revised down to minus -2.9%. Today the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be brought forth, but how important are these figures if no one trusts the reported outcome?
The problem with the jobless numbers is that while the U.S. holds up a rather appealing Unemployment Rate many doubt that the real unemployment looks quite so good. Today’s expectation is 231K jobs added. It should be noted that Wednesday’s ADP result missed its forecast.
Retail Sales from Germany were slightly better yesterday, but the CPI Flash Estimate from the continent proved that stagnation still abounds. And the Chicago PMI marks from the U.S. missed their estimate badly. There was a broad sell off on the major stock indexes among Wall Street yesterday. The EUR continued to take a hit and is testing new short-term lows and Gold is near 1285.00 USD having been put under renewed pressure.
Investors are weary equally of geo-political dealings that certainly can effect the landscape. Argentina is threatening to cause another blemish in the bond markets, Russia and Ukraine continue to play a high stakes poker game with a threat of sanctions hovering from related nations in Europe and the States. And in the Middle East stability is still being sought in many nations.
Of interest is that Crude Oil including WTI tumbled yesterday, this as news from Libya worsened. So where is demand or at least a fear of poor supply? There doesn’t seem to be a problem with this in actuality. And the energy sector thus shows that the global economy is still lacklustre. China early this morning provided further evidence when the HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI came in with a result of 51.7.
So yes, the jobless report is coming today from the States, PMI readings will be brought forward from Spain, the U.K. and U.S. also today, but unease seems to have seeped into the broad markets. Or is it a summer sell off among equities as investors take some profits from share prices that have climbed nearly all year-long thus far? Going into the weekend traders will have to remain focused on volatility which is certain to continue in FX, commodities, and equities. Risk appetite may continue to decrease before Friday ends.