As this week begins the EUR remains within the weaker realms of it range, being pressed up against support levels. European stock markets are trading lower as of this morning and because of relative lacklustre economic reports from Europe and the ECB the past month, investors will have to gauge their risk appetite carefully within the equity markets, particularly if international politics continue to offer rather sour news. Gold also finds itself in a precarious value having gained recently, but inflation figures remains quite muted.
Data will be relatively light today. The U.S. will publish the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production numbers. Inflation statistics will come from the U.K. tomorrow. And Germany will publish the ZEW Economic Sentiment also on Tuesday.
Wednesday will likely be the critical day in the market place with the FOMC Statement due from the U.S. in which monetary policy will be discussed. Investors will be keen to see how the Fed balances its recent optimistic statements against what has been disappointing U.S. data recently.
The USD has traded stronger the past two weeks and Wednesday’s Fed meeting will have an effect on sentiment. Thursday will see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. While the reports on manufacturing sentiment are important, the crux of the matter for investors will be to watch ranges in the FX markets in which the USD has been trading with better values. Can the Greenback keep up its recent good run? If the Fed shows expresses caution about the U.S. economy it could cause the USD to trade weaker and be a good opportunity.