And just like that you are starting to hear murmurs of worry in the marketplace. Retail Sales data was weaker than expected on Thursday and weekly Unemployment Claims rose. The EUR has continued to trade near support levels. However Gold has pushed upwards and as of this morning is near 1272.00 USD, which may bring out bears who see an opportunity to try and push the precious metal lower again.
Earlier this morning Japan’s Revised Industrial Production turned in a minus -2.8% result. Chinese Industrial Production numbers will be released shortly. Later today the U.S. will see the University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment reading and paired with yesterday’s poor Retail Sales numbers from the States could make for intriguing reading.
The question is this, if the wonder laden leaders of national governments can show so little foresight regarding international political affairs should their insights regarding economic matters be taken seriously? Asia, Europe, and the U.S. all continue to show signs of stagnation. Central Banks have done nearly everything they can do to make money cheap the past five years without much in the way of success – except to make sure the boat didn’t completely sink.
Consumers globally have shown that they are weary of buying big-ticket items based on unsure outlooks regarding employment and wages.
Traders however have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of with markets that are in a bluster. Equities turned in a negative day via the major stock indexes on Thursday. Talk of political chaos in the Middle East has not exactly eased investor sentiment. Currencies have continued to display volatility. As the Single Currency has struggled, Sterling has put in big gains against the USD the past two days. The JPY has gotten stronger as Asian investors have shown their die-hard attitude of risk averse tendencies when questions linger in the global markets.
Going into the weekend may questions linger about the real health of global economies. These answers will not come anytime soon. Central Banks like the ECB and Fed will no doubt continue to offer the party line – meaning they will say while the economies remain challenging that growth remains tangible. But the public should know better than to trust those who sit in ivory towers. While it is the goal to achieve growth in order to attain a better standard of living for all, polices by governments remain unproven.
As traders go into the weekend they are likely to have one eye on their positions and one eye on the World Cup. Expect to see quick markets today if Consumer Sentiment comes in weaker than expected which would put another piece into the puzzle showing that the American economy is not as stable as some have proclaimed.
With chaos coming to the surface in Iraq the past few days the price of Crude Oil has traded higher. WTI has broken through resistance and should be watched going into the weekend. Supply and demand remain quite stable, but the fear of a major energy hub being thrown into violence and confusion has created rife speculation in trading pits.