In a short time the ECB will take centre stage with Mario Draghi at the helm and will likely cut its interest rate again. Some analysts are suggesting that the ECB will actually try to introduce a negative interest rate. Yes, you read that correctly. This could literally mean that banks would have to pay the ECB for parking its money in the central bank, and that those banks could in turn charge their clients for depositing money – note this has taken place in Denmark.
Traders should note that this has not occurred yet and is merely conjecture. If the ECB decides to start taking this action it will begin what could be far-reaching precedents.
The EUR is trading slightly higher important thus far today, this after losing some of its gains yesterday. Traders should be ready for extremely volatile markets based on the notion that if an interest rate happens and it is a negative rate that the fallout will take financial institutions time to figure out all of the implications.
Traders like calm waters and the unknown is not their friend, unless they have an idea on what is going to take place in advance and understand the merits. The problem that will take place with this ECB monetary policy decision is that it could conceivably be opening up an era in which there is little history to base outlooks.
Gold as of this writing is near 1244.00 USD and must be monitored as its test critical support levels. Global Equities continue to find takers, but the entire broad marketplace will need to be watched closely today for volatility. The major indexes on Wall Street continue to test high water marks.
German Factory Orders numbers were better than expected today. The U.K. Halifax HPI showed a gain also this morning. From the States weekly Unemployment Claims will be published. And tomorrow the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be brought forth.
Simply put depending on the amount of adventure the ECB is willing to take today it could be a rather memorable Central Bank monetary policy announcement – the likes of which haven’t been seen for a few years since the height of the Great Recession’s outbreak.
The markets are certain to see whipsaw action across the FX world today based on the upcoming decision from the ECB should they decide to take what might be a revolutionary step.