Do you have a job? What type of job? These have become important questions in the sphere of employment statistics and what is not being reported by many. The Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will come from the States later today. The broad markets are showing their usual cautious approach as the report nears. Today’s estimated outcome for the jobless report is 185K. It should be remembered that last month’s outcome was disappointing with a reported gain of only 74K.
But the bigger question is what many analysts and some government officials appear to be brushing under the rug, what is the real status of employees and potential employees? While the Unemployment Rate has shown a better result consecutively and now carries a 6.7% mark, the fact of the matter is that a large percentage of Americans remain unemployed and underemployed. Statistics vary but there are some who claim that the real unemployment rate in the U.S. is closer to 11.5%. This as many have stopped looking for work combined with those who have run out of time and are no longer able to file for unemployment claims and thus are dropped from polling.
The ADP jobless number is often not a good indicator, particular it seems when you have a trade on and are counting on an outcome via the official Non-Farm Employment Change data to provide your position a ‘good’ dose of energy, but nevertheless it does carry some weight. This past Wednesday’s ADP Non-Farm number came in below expectations and the previous month’s numbers were revised downward.
While many elected officials are pointing towards a better Unemployment Rate and the Federal Reserve serves up optimistic pronouncements about the American economy the real jobless numbers in the States remain very questionable. Today’s outcome will be delivered to investors who have shown a large degree of nervous sentiment the past week in equities and FX. A bad number today would likely cause an additional decrease in risk appetite and certainly not help what has become a fragile marketplace.