Summer trading began to set in on Monday as volumes began to diminish and Wall Street turned in a lackluster day. Followed by a disappointing jobs number on Friday the forex market showed some early spunk as the EUR climbed to new highs, but the Single Currency was not able to sustain the upper values as Monday grew late. The GBP also gained in trading yesterday, but unlike the EUR, Sterling was able to hold onto its higher realms. A better than expected Services PMI from the U.K. helped too with a mark of 60.2, which beat the expectation of 57.4 handily.
Gold should have the attention of its camp followers early today. The precious metal is around 1289.00 USD as of this writing. Gold has continued its volatile ways the past few trading sessions and things are not likely to change. If Gold breaks its current psychological support levels it could see more selling. Contrarians who are not gold bugs may find themselves in a difficult spot as they try to decipher the swift turnaround by those who were only half a year ago speculating that Gold would hit 2000.00. Digital Markets Advisor remains a disbeliever of Gold except to say that the day inflation starts to show any evidence of making a return that the precious metal will find quick favor again (this and collapse of fiat currencies should the Fed or ECB ever be called upon to show their true accounting).
German Factory Orders data will be released today, an hour before that the Manufacturing and Industrial Production numbers will come from the U.K.. These reports could play into short-term sentiment however, the story in fx will likely remain the belief that Friday’s rather poor Non-Farm Employment Change numbers has likely put a crimp in any plans by the Federal Reserve to disengage from its quantitative easing policy swiftly – meaning a weakened USD will continue for the time being. No matter the speeches from Ben Bernanke the Fed has essentially put itself in a position in which it will have to take a timid approach and may find itself stuck if the unemployment problem in the U.S. doesn’t improve.
It should be noted that the RBA lowered its key interest rate earlier today. The AUD has traded near known support levels this morning. The Royal Bank of Australia has been late to the interest rate cut party, but then again Australia didn’t slide into a massive recession like many of its counterparts. However Australia is definitely struggling a bit economically now and the AUD has suffered via RBA cuts and weak commodity prices.
Crude Oil remains of interest. WTI is still near highs as it tracks ever so slightly below Brent. Speculative positions within Crude Oil are likely to have brought upon these lofty prices as demand remains relatively calm.
Wall Street’s struggles on Monday may indicate that as summer grows bulls may find the sun a bit too strong to charge forth on a daily basis. The States will be quiet with data today and coupled with investors starting to disappear as August holidays are taken the broad markets should be a rather tranquil ground for traders to test ranges if they are not at the beach themselves.