The ECB and BoE will issue their interest rate decisions in the coming two hours, but no major surprises are expected. After the ECB lowered its key interest rate last month to 0.50% investors can rest comfortably knowing that President Mario Draghi will now return to confidence building measures as he assures the world that the European Union’s economic conditions are stabilizing and the outlook is better – even if it is not entirely based on the truth and quantified numbers that are coming from certain nations like Germany in fact have shown deterioration. But Mr. Draghi has become quite accomplished with his presentation of silver lined fog and investors can expect to be comforted like little children as they are told all will be well.
The EUR is up this morning. Traders should be ready for some volatility with the Single Currency as the ECB press conference takes place and the range of the EUR is tested. The GBP has also climbed in trading and like the EUR is approaching highs that were reached a month ago.
Global equities struggled across the board yesterday, but the Nikkei put in a day of gains today from Japan. Wall Street struggled yesterday as the ADP jobless report was negative and Factory Orders data missed its estimate. Weekly Unemployment Claims statistics will be released today and the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published tomorrow from the States.
Gold has traded in a consolidated fashion the past twenty-four hours and as of this writing is around 1400.00 USD. Crude Oil traded slightly higher yesterday, but is still well within a range dance that has not shown any signs of disappearing anytime soon as overall commodity demand remains suspect.
With the ECB and BoE under focus today, investors can expect a ‘friendly’ return to the central banks favorite operating system which tries to induce a transfixed stupor as their selected ‘talking heads’ drone on to those listening that they have all things under control. The fact that data from Europe is still wildly recessionary without any real signs of improvement and that quantified statistics from the United States remains lackluster will be asked to be perceived as a minor inconvenience. Traders should watch trends carefully today and understand that the medicine the central banks are prescribing will likely only have a short-term effect. Optimism might be seen today within certain assets, but tomorrow is yet another day and the equity and the FX markets will have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of the nervous sentiment which appears widespread.