The markets have continued their nervous run upwards. Asian bourses this morning have put in gains except for the Hang Seng. The JPY has also moved back to the weakest realms of its value against the USD in early morning trading. Gold is near 1386.00 per ounce and Crude Oil prices have been consolidating. However the bulk of commodities have continued to exhibit pressure and face headwinds. Yesterday’s CB Consumer Confidence reading from the United States was better than expected with a mark of 76.2, but the Richmond Manufacturing Index went negative with a minus -2 outcome. Wall Street however did continue its bull rally.
Data will be light today, with only the German Unemployment Change numbers, followed by the CBI Realized Sales index from the U.K.. It is news and more specifically rumors that are beginning to emerge from spheres of influence that are of noted interest, for instance there have been rumblings in Japan’s back rooms concerning its devaluation of the JPY that have been making headlines. Policy arguments are starting to be heard as the government has begun to achieve success in bringing about a weaker Yen, but worries have grown about Japanese bonds and their higher yields. In addition to Japan, China has certainly begun to worry investors as its economic data has begun to show signs of faltering.
Preliminary GDP figures will be released from the U.S. tomorrow and these statistics will come under heavy scrutiny. The States has only been able to offer rather lackluster data and not been able to achieve overwhelmingly positive reports. And the specter of a Catch-22 will hang in the air tomorrow among investors. If the GDP report turns in a number surprisingly better that the forecasted 2.5% gain, traders could actually see nervousness ramp up because they will wonder about the Federal Reserve and the possibility of its monetary policy being shifted and the printing press being turned off eventually. On the other hand, a result that shows the American economy is merely meeting its current expectations or does slightly worse might actually feed into the prevailing sentiment that the Fed’s current QE is not going to change this summer and this could cause Wall Street to gain.
As this bull rally continues to thrash and cause awkward glances from disapproving analysts who believe that the results are temporary, there can be no denying that for those who have participated in the rallies that their trading accounts have been rewarded. Short-term thinking remains the choice for most participants. Forex markets in the past 24 hours have seen the GBP and AUD lose value along with the EUR against the USD. Volatility continues to ebb in FX and for those with enough fortitude to stomach the fast paced ranges opportunities are abundant. And for those who are looking long-term into the looking-glass, the equity bourses may appear to have plenty of clouds lurking on the horizon, but for now the stampede continues and it may be best to move to the side and find a safe place to relax and watch the show as the short-term players frolic.