Jack be nimble, Jack be quick, Jack jump over the equities slick. Wall Street has turned in a couple of more positive sessions and while the bull rally is a beautiful sight if you are able to act at a moment’s notice, the fear is that when the fun ends many will get burned. Elements for doubt have been loudly voiced already, the gain in equities has been a central bank fueled party in the opinion of many. However, optimists point out that much of the skepticism being heard about the run upwards is because of the hangover from the financial crisis of 2008 and that the path is safe. The major indexes have certainly shown no fear of heights recently and most traders betting on a rapid decline in the short-term have likely been injured monetarily.
Gravity is a great equalizer though and while it is a fact that a good stock picker can find values in solid companies that are under priced, let there be no doubt that index traders who are not fast enough may suffer if the elevator up suddenly stops and lurches to the ground floor. Too many questions persist about the health of the American, European, and Asian economies to change our broad negative outlook about the long distance. We respect the difference between short-term and long-term though, and for those who remain alert and have the ability to act quickly the indexes have proven a winning track so far.
Data will continue to be light today. The U.K. will see the Halifax HPI shortly and the German Industrial Production numbers will be published within a couple of hours. French Industrial production figures proved disappointing yesterday. But why would France worry at this juncture? After all, they have declared that austerity is over and the champagne socialists in charge of the country appear to have no problems today. Unfortunately tomorrow may prove to be a different day and the reality of debt could be rather unappetizing again. Bon appetite.
The EUR continues to put in a general range trade mode – as has the JPY. However the GBP has traded stronger against the USD, while the AUD has moved to its lower boundaries in the short-term. Gold has been floundering and as of this writing is near 1453.00 USD. The precious metal is under a bright spotlight with plenty of articles being published regarding its bear decline. There are plenty of folks who are still in love with the metal for the long-term. But the long-term is far away if you are trying to buy Gold with a massive amount of leverage and watching its value decline along with the amount of money in your trading account.
The remainder of this week will remain the playground of short-term market participants who are enjoying the spring sunshine. Data will be relatively light the remainder of the week. Impetus will continue to come from the confidence game being played by governments and their anointed officers. While the ‘game’ has been questioned far and wide by those who remain skeptical about the Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s tactics, it is never wise to step in front of a solid trend no matter how much you disagree with it. However, traders must remain nimble and quick because the spring skies could turn into summer storms.