Gold has declined sharply in early trading today. Upon the opening of the Asian markets the precious metal began to break its consolidation and as of this writing is near 1568.00 in fast and volatile action. Gold had maintained a fairly tight range in the midst of the Cyprus crisis emerging, but today’s steep decline proves again that the broad markets can react in a trigger like fashion. Crude Oil has continued to trade near short-term highs and WTI could attract ‘bears’ who believe that it may be over valued, but it should be noted that a U.S. Crude Oil Inventory report will be published today.
The States will see the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reading in a few hours time. The estimate for the data is a mark of 55.9. After disappointing Manufacturing PMI results earlier in the week, investors will watch this number carefully as they look for correlations and it will spur action on Wall Street. A negative outcome could create brief headwinds for the equity markets, while a positive outcome would likely feed additional risk taking which has taken the major indexes to new highs. Traders should also keep in mind that jobless data begins today with the ADP report to be followed by the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers on Friday.
While Cyprus remains in the spotlight, many investors are gearing themselves for tomorrow’s ECB monetary policy meeting. The EUR continues to be pressured and is testing lows. The GBP has also traded lower the past twenty-four hours. U.K. Construction PMI has come in with a negative reading of 47.2 today. The BOE will release its interest rate and monetary policy statement tomorrow. U.K. data continues to struggle and it is expected that the Bank of England will keep its current QE formula. Sterling has been essentially trading lower for a few months, the past couple of weeks have produced more stability, but yesterday’s declines should serve as a reminder that the currency is likely participating in a ‘quiet’ devaluation that the English government approves.
The broad markets continue to be fragile and traders must be ready for volatility. Gold’s decline today has proven that large speculative positions are ready and seeking catalysts.