Service PMI data will be an early highlight today. Italy has already posted their result and it was more disappointing than expected with an outcome of 44.6. The broad European number will be out in a few moments. (The E.U. result has now been published with a mark of 46.7, which was better than expected but still stuck in a recessionary mode).
The U.K. and the U.S will also release Services PMI data today. An additional early number to watch today will be Retail Sales for Europe, which is expecting a drop of minus -0.1%. This will all coincide nicely with tomorrow’s central bank pronouncements from the BoE and ECB.
Later today the jobless parade from the States will begin with the ADP numbers, tomorrow weekly Unemployment Claims will follow, with Non-Farm Employment Changes thundering behind on Friday.
The EUR continues to turn in a markedly good performance in the wake of the Greek buy backs. What this has done is spur fresh confidence into the broad markets that the Europeans on the surface continue to look for ways to manage their crisis. Also it must continue to be pointed out that the U.S. has thus far failed to deliver on any signs of a forthcoming budget agreement which jeopardizes their AAA bond rating – if the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ cannot be averted. But traders should be aware of the politics that are likely being played and are well versed among those who have studied Congressional gamesmanship before, meaning that some type of limited agreement is likely to be found before it is too late. With the Single Currency doing so well against the USD in recent trading it will take a lot of positives from ECB President Mario Draghi to improve the recent trend of the EUR. And lets remember a too strong EUR will do little to help recession troubled economies that rely on export.
Gold continues to test low water marks and as of this writing the precious metal is near 1706.00, while Crude Oil is nearly 89.00 per a barrel of WTI.
Wall Street traded negatively on Tuesday but without much in the way of strong direction. Sentiment remains very cautious as investors take a wait and see approach regarding the political gyrations from Washington D.C. and just may sit on the fence, unless speculating, through the jobless numbers on Friday. Essentially there are two more full weeks of trading to come before volumes start to vanish with the Christmas season approaching. Equities have remained rather calm, but large question marks still hover over the trading landscape.
In the meantime the trend remains the friend for short-term forex traders who have been able to take advantage of the rise in value for the EUR. For GBP traders the markets have been more challenging and participants should watch the upcoming Services PMI reading that will be released soon. Because Construction PMI was poor yesterday from the U.K., traders may be braced for another negative sign today for Sterling. (Note 9:46 GMT – A result of 50.2 has recently been published which was below most estimates and shows further creeping towards a recession for the U.K.).