Do not be fooled. The broad markets are turning in rallies across most boards but volumes remain very low. While the U.S. is open for trading and Wall Street is turning in gains currently, it must be asked who is participating in today’s session. Many financial institutions remain shuttered in the States or with only a skeleton staff and will only re-open fully on Monday.
The EUR is near highs, Gold is flying along side the rampant move upwards, and love appears to be in the air. But again, let’s take a step back and ask why? What are the reasons the EUR is doing so well when the E.U. Summit has produced nothing positive regarding its budget woes? The key question is when will resistance come into the broad markets again? And who exactly will want to be long going into the weekend?
This market in Digital Markets Advisor’s opinion, yesterday and today is far more about riding the trend instead of an increased appetite for risk. Yes, the German Ifo Business Climate reading today produced a mark of 101.4 beating its estimate of 99.6, but it is doubtful a parade of optimism is about to break out in Frankfurt tonight. The recession remains clearly intact for Europe.
This weekend and next week could prove to be big for E.U. financial crisis news as leaders struggle to find a way to maximize their accomplishments in the face of a cold stark reality – namely numbers that continue to point towards to dare we say Europe’s own version of a ‘fiscal cliff’. Greece, Spain, and Italy among others remain in trouble. Prime Minister David Cameron is clearly not going to be elected to lead the welcoming party for the E.U. this weekend. And news flow coming from the Middle East continues to be rather absurd, Egypt is seeing rather large unrest in Cairo today.
Also making its way into the information circle early next week will be results from American retail giants via the beginning of the holiday shopping season which has begun in earnest this morning. Investors will be keen not only to look at foot traffic but what type of discounting took place in order to lure customers through the doors.
In short, Digital Markets Advisor remains unconvinced that a glorious string of good economic data and news is about to suddenly emerge. While we trust politicians will do their utmost to say they are going to find solutions, we also suspect the problems remain very large and often understated.