As Monday started and ended it became clear that Europe was struggling the most within their markets. The EUR traded lower against the USD in a session that did see it make an attempt to recover some ground, but by the end of the day reaffirmed that worries prevail and major hurdles will continue to challenge many parameters within the European Union. Ah, yes, let’s get it said now, the U.S. election is today………but the point here is that even with the election for President of the United States about to start taking place, and while the States turned in a cautious day of returns that Europe may have given a glimpse into the looking-glass for the next four years. Gold as of this morning remains on the lower side of its values mid-term around 1686.00 as of this writing, while Crude Oil is in its consolidated lower rungs still.
Spain’s unemployment data yesterday proved wildly disappointing, but was it really unexpected? German Factory Orders statistics will be released today, but investors will pay plenty of attention to the Services PMI outcomes that will come from both Spain and Italy and both are expected to remain depressed. These reminders of troubles plus the political wrangling that is becoming louder and more aggressive again in Greece have done little to calm the waters surrounding the Single Currency. While lip service from politicians far and wide remains heard and ECB officials ask for mandates to right the ship, real-time ramifications continue to mount on the streets of European nations that are in turmoil.
The Services PMI reading from the U.K. on Monday was bad coming in with a result of 50.6 missing its estimate of 52.0 and perhaps signifying that the jump from the Olympics this summer in London will prove to have provided nothing but a small positive which has already vanished. Today the U.K. will issue Manufacturing Production numbers. The GBP will be of interest to watch today and tomorrow considering that weak data – meaning recessionary hints – are likely to begin shadowing the Sterling once again.
We are left with the following, while endorsements and promises rage from the United States as the election gets underway today and sounds of optimism are expressed by many about the U.S. economy and its ability to achieve growth, a storm cloud continues to lurk on the horizon. The U.S. does not live in an isolated world and if the European economy is not able to improve and actually gets worse it will have a profound effect on the global outlook. While the housing bubble burst first in the States and took down an assembly line of financial institutions and caused widespread damage domestically its eventual tsunami did in fact hit Europe and frankly the continent still suffers. Thus a victory for Obama or Romney today no doubt will have short-term residual meaning in the States, but the global economy needs to make sure that the mechanics of the European machine are fixed, unfortunately this is proving a tough task. And if we want to view more hard realities, the U.S. faces an incredible amount of debt too and it will need to produce very strong growth and manage its fiscal and monetary policies astutely in order to keep its vast collective intact.
The U.S. election today is huge and will have major implication for forex, commodities, and stock exchanges. Wall Street will certainly react to the outcome tomorrow. However it must be remembered that places like Europe, Asia – particularly China, and other locales will have a leading role in the script that the U.S. President-elect will have to interact with in these coming four years and while the campaign trail has tried to paint every cloud with a silver lining, storms sometimes bring more damage than can be handled if they are not prepared for properly.
Traders should expect to see choppy and cautious markets today. After the election results are in tomorrow traders should expect to see fast and volatile markets short-term.