Summer is nearing its end. August holidays wrap up this week and the U.S. celebrates Labor Day next Monday. Meaning that by the middle of next week volumes will begin to return to normal and financial institutions which have been hibernating will be fully awake. In the past week the EUR has climbed in value on a steady basis against the USD. Gold has risen back to lofty heights and of this morning is around 1676.00 USD and Crude Oil has consolidated near it summers highs.
Data does continue and the German Ifo Business Climate reading released this morning produced a disappointing result of 102.3 compared to the estimate of 102.7. Tomorrow the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be published from the States, but the real focus for investors will be the speeches that come from the Jackson Hole Symposium which gets underway this Friday. Also on everyone’s mind are the rumblings coming from various governments in Europe regarding Greece’s coming adventure in September into the world of quantifying its debt and austerity ratios. This as ministers from the likes of Germany and Holland have made it clear that a new round of money for Greece will not come easily. Having said that Angela Merkel of Germany has made it clear that she would like her underlings to think before they speak so the economic landscape does not falter from a lack of confidence. In short the name of the game has been to manage expectations and make sure that everyone is prepared for a September in which the Central Banks will be looked to for guidance and politicians will be looked to for responsibility and showing that they can coordinate what some believe is a sinking global ship economically.
While the EUR has done very well against the USD, the GBP has also gained in value against the Greenback. The Sterling has kept pace with the Single Currency and has had a solid run the past week and a half. The AUD however has continued to falter slightly against the USD as has the CAD. The results of the AUD and CAD losing value against the USD while the EUR and GBP have gained are noteworthy. The prices of commodities have continued to climb in August and both of these ‘commodity currencies’ have actually struggled against the Greenback. Meaning that not all the results we are witnessing in the broad marketplace can be trusted and that something else is being factored into Forex. Also of note is that the EUR/CHF has kept its unholy alliance together with success and has continued its consolidated pace.
Wall Street turned in gains last week, but the volumes were not overly impressive. The summer rally may continue for bourses, but investors do know that storm clouds are on the horizon and traders should be wary of long-term wagers unless they have the patience for days that prove to be a struggle too.