The ECB will hold their monetary policy meeting and announce the results this Thursday. The U.S. will publish their Non Farm Employment Change numbers on Friday.
Monday’s trading was rather cautious with these two game changing events on the horizon. The EUR/USD essentially straddled a consolidated value. The Single Currency has come off of its short-term highs seen last Friday as the ‘euphoria’ from Mario Draghi’s announcement that the ECB would do everything it could to help the EUR has began to wear off. And why did the euphoria wear off so quickly? Because as predicted the nations of Europe continue to display desperation. Spain let it be known that it will need another bailout package and there are some estimates that the cash is around 300 billion. Simply put the ECB can say nearly anything they want to but in reality the tools that they have to solve the financial crisis among the independent nations comprising the Single Currency are limited. Independent being the crucial word. The ECB has at best a very meager E.U. at the helm in which it can only offer words of encouragement but little else. Germany is the lynchpin for the E.U. economically and its policies and decisions are the key for Greece, Spain, and any other nation seeking further leeway as budgets and austerity measures are asked to be met.
Wall Street traded down on Monday as investors sat on the fence. Today is the last day of trading for the month and the results from the broad markets have been tough. Gold as of this morning is around 1626.00 USD and may be approaching short-term highs. Crude Oil is still below 90.00 USD a barrel. Commodities will provide fireworks this week because of the questions surrounding economic conditions but also because of weather conditions in the States which are having an effect on the grains, Corn has seen major volatility.
Economic data from Britain proved disappointing yesterday and most signs point towards a growing recession. German Retail Sales came in below their estimates already this morning. From the States today Personal Spending data will be brought forth.
The AUD and CAD have done well against the Greenback with the recent upswing in commodities. Traders may begin to seek short sells against the AUD and CAD but should manage their risk properly. And those who have been watching the EUR/CHF will have plenty on their plates to consider the end of this week as they continue to monitor the Swiss peg which many feel is far too artificial.
Investors have plenty of short-term concerns regarding Europe and the possibility that the U.S. is sliding back into tough economic conditions. The manner in which the ECB handles its monetary policy decision this coming Thursday and the final statistics regarding employment in the U.S. on Friday will have a major impact on trading the entire month of August. Look for politicians and government officials to do their best rendition of ‘all is well’. The problem for them will not only come from an investor pool that is suspicious but the certainty that the upcoming election in the States will bring out oppositional opinions from politicians seeking to topple the current administration.
The results from this week could have big implications.