The USD lost ground to the EUR yesterday when ECB President Draghi said the E.U. Central Bank would do everything in its power to support the Single Currency. Cough, cough. Wall Street apparently liked the news enough to rise a bit and needless to say some European bourses also showed an ability to put in gains. Afterall, the ECB can be counted on to actually support the EUR this time around. They have done such a good job of handling the crisis already. In the meantime it was reported that Greek budget talks with the E.U. had hit a stumbling block. Cough, cough. Excuse me there must be something in the water. And by the way, President Draghi of the ECB did not exactly offer any concrete outline on how the Central Bank would support the EUR. Cough, cough.
You see the problem here is not for a lack of willingness, most government ministers and banking officials know they need to solve the problem. The problem is that they can not do it. That in actuality there is no legitimate means of curbing a sovereign nation’s spending and austerity when you do not hold real power within their base and are merely standing on the outside. Hello Spain, Greece, Italy, etc, etc. I do not mean to make fun of the effort, what I mean to do is to point out that somehow there are those among us that keep buying into the empty promises. My cough has suddenly disappeared.
While the EUR gained a bit on the USD, Gold also climbed yesterday. It also needs to be pointed out that the Core Durable Goods Orders statistics came in worse than expected from the States on Thursday. But who cares when the party is going so well, why pay attention to such things? Today the U.S. will release Advance GDP numbers and there is an estimated gain of 1.5% being anticipated.
Forex, commodities, and equities continue to prove why there is a need for a variety of ice cream flavors. Put three people together and you are bound to get at least 3 or 4 opinions. You say up, I say down. In short the broad markets have tried their best to put on a brave front. Some investors have shown a desire to believe that everything will be alright, but the problem is there is very little data to back such optimism. The empty words of governments and their various leaders has proven unfortunately that they are more interested in keeping the masses placated. The reality is that the broad markets are also based on real business, import & export, manufacturing & purchasing, and taxes. And no matter what is said cold hard numbers still must be dealt with at the end of the day because confidence will get the occasional test from reality.
So maybe yesterday’s optimistic results are a good thing. We cannot all be cynics. Maybe it is a good thing that we may go into this weekend showing that good results are possible. But friends please do not count on the ship to float so well all of the time.